Gavin Maguire
The world’s largest thermal coal buyers tapped the brakes on imports during the first quarter of 2025, driving purchases to the lowest quarterly total in three years, data from ship tracking firm Kpler shows.
Global coal imports for the first quarter were just over 240 million metric tons, roughly 10 million tons less than was shipped during the same quarter a year ago.
China, India, Japan and South Korea – the top global coal importers in 2024 – all reduced first-quarter purchases by more than 10% from the same period in 2024, as sharply higher clean power generation allowed for their utilities to cut coal use.
Continued growth in clean power output may allow for further cuts to coal imports in the top coal markets over the coming months and could trigger their first collective contraction in thermal imports since 2020.
However, several smaller fast-growing economies have expanded coal purchases so far this year, which has somewhat offset the cuts seen into the largest markets and prevented total coal imports from registering a steeper decline.
Key cuts
The top four coal importers, which accounted for 69% of all coal imports in 2024, have been the most aggressive import cutters so far in 2025.
China, the world’s largest coal consumer, led the import reductions by lowering first-quarter purchases to 67 million tons from nearly 85 million tons in the first quarter of 2024.
That was China’s lowest quarterly import tally since the third quarter of 2022. Sluggish industrial activity and record domestic coal production last year have curbed China’s coal import appetite.
India’s first-quarter import total was just under 39 million tons, down 5.6 million tons from the same quarter last year.
Indian authorities have prioritized boosting domestic coal production over imports, which has resulted in India’s average import pace falling from around 45 million tons a month in late 2023 to around 37 million tons a month since mid-2024.
South Korea registered the next-largest cut to first-quarter imports, which totaled 15.3 million tons compared to 18.6 million tons in 2024. Record nuclear power output has spurred utilities there to pare coal and gas-fired generation.
Japan’s first-quarter import tally was just over 25 million tons, down from 27.8 million tons during the first quarter of 2024 and the lowest first-quarter reading since 2018.
All told, the four largest coal importers reduced their collective imports by nearly 30 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 from the same months in 2024.
Growth markets
While the largest traditional coal importers have made cuts to coal purchases so far this year, other nations have expanded their coal import volumes.
Indeed, total imports outside of China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for the largest share of total coal imports in three years during the first quarter of 2025.
Turkey, Vietnam and Bangladesh all registered record first-quarter import tallies in 2025, while the Philippines and Malaysia both recorded their second-highest first-quarter import totals.
Thailand, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Morocco and the Netherlands – the main seaborne entry point into continental Europe – also recorded robust first-quarter import totals.
The volume increases seen into these second-tier markets are small compared to the nearly 18 million ton drop recorded into China so far this year.
But the nearly 2 million ton climb in imports by Turkey, the 1.5 million ton rise in imports into the Netherlands, and the roughly 1 million ton climbs seen into Bangladesh, Hong Kong and Vietnam can add up to significant tonnage if sustained all year.
What’s more, there were roughly 43 million tons of coal cargoes dispatched during March that have yet to be rectified by Kpler’s trade-matching system.
Once cleared, those volumes will likely elevate the delivery volumes into all major coal importing nations during the second quarter of 2025, and prop up coal trade flows even during what is traditionally the low point for global coal use.
That said, the steep import drops seen already into China and India in particular bode well for climate trackers who are hoping for signs of a long-term downturn in global coal imports.
And even if import volumes continue to climb into the likes of Turkey and Vietnam, a sustained drop in the collective coal imports by the four largest importers should trigger an overall contraction in global coal shipments by year-end.
(The author is a market analyst for Reuters)
Published – April 01, 2025 03:16 pm IST
