Its stock tumbled 15% on Monday after UBS Group AG’s Joseph Spak cut delivery projections both for the first quarter and the full year. Robert W. Baird & Co. analyst Ben Kallo similarly lowered his estimates for Tesla deliveries on March 6.
Spak sees Tesla handing over only 367,000 vehicles this quarter, a 16% reduction from his prior estimate. He’s also no longer expecting the company to sell more vehicles in 2025 than last year, projecting a roughly 5% annual drop. On average, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a roughly 10% increase for the year, and Tesla executives have said the company will return to growth in 2025.
“While we do expect the Model Y refresh to help, we believe orders are somewhat muted,” Spak wrote in a report to clients. He cited Tesla’s website in China showing that customers only need to wait two to four weeks for delivery of the new SUV.
In addition to disruptions related to changing over its most important model to a new design, blowback against Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is hurting Tesla’s standing in some of the world’s biggest EV markets early this year. In Germany, for instance, registrations plummeted 70% during the first two months of the year as Musk weighed in on the country’s closely contested federal election.
In China — the world’s biggest EV market — Tesla is among the manufacturers struggling to keep up with domestic champion BYD Co. Vehicle shipments from the Musk-led company’s plant in Shanghai plunged 49% in February to just 30,688 vehicles, the lowest monthly figure since July 2022.
Monday’s drop in Tesla shares was the biggest single-day decline since September 2020. The stock is down 45% in 2025 and has lost all of its gains since Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November.
