India’s Q3FY25 GDP growth at 6.2% in line with expectations

India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 6.2% in the third quarter of FY25, in line with street expectations, as per the National Statistics Office (NSO) data released on Friday, February 28. The CNBC-TV18 poll had estimated India’s GDP growth in Q3 to come in at 6.2%. However, the Q3 GDP number marks a slowdown compared to the 8.6% growth recorded in the same quarter last year but an improvement from 5.4% in the previous quarter.

#GDPData | #GDP growth at 6.2% Vs CNBC-TV18 poll of 6.2%#GDP growth at 6.2% vs 8.6% (YoY) & vs 5.4% (QoQ) pic.twitter.com/CgmRlExSbx

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) February 28, 2025

The gross value added (GVA) stood at 6.2%, slightly below the poll estimate of 6.3%. On a yearly basis, GVA growth was lower than 6.8% YoY but higher than 5.6% in Q2FY25.

Experts had projected GDP growth to recover to around 6.3% in Q3FY25, driven by increased government spending, up from 5.4% in the previous quarter. Their estimates ranged between 5.8% and 6.5%.

In nominal terms, GDP, which accounts for inflation, expanded by 9.9% in Q3 FY25.

Sector-wise performance in Q3FY25

• Agriculture grew 5.6%, a significant jump from 1.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ.
• Manufacturing expanded 3.5%, a sharp decline from 14% YoY, but higher than 2.1% QoQ.
• Construction reported 7% growth, lower than 10% YoY but easing slightly from 8.7% QoQ.
• Electricity grew 5.1%, down from 10.1% YoY, but up from 3% QoQ.
• Mining saw a muted growth of 1.4%, compared to 4.7% YoY, but improved from -0.3% QoQ.
• Trade, hotels, transport & communication grew at 6.7%, slower than 8% YoY, but an uptick from 6.1% QoQ.
• Financial services & real estate posted 7.2% growth, down from 8.4% YoY, remaining steady QoQ.
• Public administration, defence & services grew 8.8%, unchanged QoQ, slightly higher than 8.4% YoY.

Industrial and services growth trends

• The industries sector expanded by 4.5%, a steep decline from 11.8% YoY.
• The services sector maintained robust momentum at 7.4%, though lower than 8.3% YoY.

FY25 GDP Growth: Second Advance Estimate

The government’s second advance estimate for FY25 GDP growth stands at 6.5%, slightly ahead of the CNBC-TV18 poll estimate 6.3% but lower than the 9.2% growth in FY24.

The projection is also marginally lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimate of 6.6%. Nominal GDP growth is expected at 9.9%, lower than the 12% recorded in FY24. Meanwhile, real GVA is seen at 6.4%, compared to 8.6% YoY.