On Wednesday, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin chaired an all-party meeting at the state secretariat, where 58 national and regional parties (64 were invited) brainstormed ways and means of countering the delimitation exercised scheduled to be conducted next year.
The parties in attendance included the ruling DMK, the opposition AIADMK, and others like the Congress, VCK, PMK, MDMDK, DMDK and the left parties in the CPI and CPI(M). The Tamil Nadu BJP, NTK and Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) were conspicuous by their absence.
All party representatives unanimously agreed that South Indian states, including Tamil Nadu, shouldn’t be penalised for implementing effective population control measures by way of a delimitation exercise that is expected to hand in more parliamentary constituencies to states that have displayed higher population growth.
“I thank all the parties who attended the meeting and unanimously supported the proposal brought by the Chief Minister regarding the delimitation process,” said the state’s finance minister, Thangam Thenarasu after the all-party meet. “Except a few, most of the political parties have aligned with the state government to protect their rights,” he added.
What is delimitation?
Tamil Nadu’s concerns are not unusual given the general discourse and controversy surrounding delimitation. Once every two or three decades, the Union Government decides to re-draw India’s parliamentary representation or constituencies, in line with population growth, by way of a process called ‘delimitation’.
The last time delimitation was conducted was 2002, a whole year after the 2001 census. The one big problem with delimitation, observers have pointed out, is in the process of giving more seats to some states and fewer seats to others, based on state population growth. This mechanism has inadvertently penalizes states like those in the South that have implemented effective population control, thereby seeing a drop in parliamentary representation.
Realising the problem, Prime Minister Vajpayee promised South India in 2000 that the 2002 delimitation exercise account for population figures in the 1971 Census and not the 2001 Census, so as to not put the Southern states in a spot and have them lose seats. That is why India’s Lok Sabha seat count has stayed at 543, a figure that first came about in the 1973 delimitation exercise.
However, this formula is slated to remain only until delimitation comes back around again, an exercise that is now scheduled to take place, next year. There are fears that the NDA could revert to the conventional method of utilizing the latest census data to redraw parliamentary boundaries in 2026, thereby handing out more constituencies to North Indian states, which have seen high population growth, while Southern states could see near-static Lok Sabha seat counts, despite implementing effective population control measures in the 1970s and 1980s.
“The states that scrupulously followed population control measures are now at a disadvantage versus states that did not follow population control measures,” pointed out DMK spokesperson, A Saravanan, “The population control measures contributed to the economy of this country; we contributed to its growth; we listened to you. But now you want to penalize us.”
How will it impact South India?
The proposed 2026 delimitation could be disastrous for South India if the latest population statistics are considered. States like Rajasthan, UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh have continued to see population figures and fertility rates soar, with some estimates pointing to Uttar Pradesh seeing its Lok Sabha seat tally increase from 80 to 128, and Bihar’s from 40 to 70, while Tamil Nadu’s 39 seats, Karnataka’s 28 or Andhra’s 25 seats are expected to hardly see an increase, since population in these states haven’t increased as much as North India.
Tamil Nadu’s political parties say this formula isn’t fair. The state’s opposition to the population-driven exercise comes despite Home Minister Amit Shah’s assurances that Tamil Nadu wouldn’t lose quote-unquote a single seat by way of delimitation.
“He has not mentioned how many seats he is going to increase in the Northern States,” pointed out PMK leader and former union minister, Anbumani Ramadoss, “So, our question is: why are you penalising us when we have done well in Government of India’s programmes of population stabilization.”
At the end of the all-party meet, two resolutions were arrived at:
1) Seek assurance from Prime Minister Narendra Modi that when delimitation is carried out, it would be based on the 1971 population figures – before population control measures were carried out by Tamil Nadu and other Southern states – and be valid for 30 years.
2) Form a Joint Action Committee of Members of Parliament and other representatives from the South to coordinated a unified response to the delimitation exercise slated to begin next year.
The bottom line, Tamil Nadu claims, is simply this: if some states have implemented effective population control, reward them instead of imposing default penalties like a delimitation exercise based on population growth. That is the message the state hopes will resonate with the Centre, come 2026.
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