“The larger message is that the groups are fully capable of targeting the ground lines of communication, which are part of the CPEC,” Gupta said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
The BLA’s attack also sends a direct signal to China and Pakistan, highlighting that CPEC cannot succeed without resolving the underlying Baloch grievances. As Gupta explained, “CPEC is a flagship project for China in Pakistan, which is under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These groups are trying to exert pressure on China and Pakistan to somehow resolve the Balochistan issue.” With Baloch insurgents frequently targeting infrastructure tied to CPEC, the security of the project remains in question.
The motivations behind the attack stem from long-standing grievances of the Baloch people, who accuse the Pakistani state of oppression, forced disappearances, and suppression of their political and economic rights. Gupta noted that the ill-treatment of Baloch women leaders has also fuelled anger. “The Baloch groups see Pakistani forces as oppressors and blame them for thousands of forced disappearances of young men over the last three to four decades,” she added.
The frequency and intensity of attacks by Baloch insurgents have increased over the past two years, posing a growing challenge to Pakistani authorities. “They’ve been frequently targeting Pakistani patrols, bases, and facilities. The number of attacks has gone up, and so has the lethality,” Gupta pointed out, indicating that this trend is likely to continue.
In response to the attack, Pakistan has already started pointing fingers at Afghanistan, alleging that the Baloch insurgents operate from Afghan territory. “They have blamed Afghanistan and claimed to have tracked a phone call from Afghan soil to someone on the train,” Gupta said, noting that the Taliban has rejected these allegations. She also suggested that Pakistan might soon accuse India, as it has done in the past.
The Pakistani government’s response is expected to include crackdowns on Baloch civilians, as has been the pattern in previous incidents. “Pakistani forces are likely to go after innocent Baloch civilians, especially their leaders, to instill fear and take revenge,” Gupta warned.
Regionally, the attack could have significant consequences. Gupta suggests that Pakistan may resort to proxy attacks or cross-border military operations. “We could definitely see vendetta attacks through proxies and also through cross-border military operations—against Afghanistan and India. I wouldn’t be surprised,” she said. She also raised concerns that groups like ISIS or AQIS could be used as unclaimed proxies to carry out attacks that cannot be directly linked to the Pakistani security establishment.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
