Our world is changing, like it never has, and it will never be the same again. So, buckle up for an unforgettable ride.
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’
-Bob Dylan
God bless America! And God bless all of us, for the world is going through a period of unimagined change. It is almost as if all reason has been thrown to the wind and we are now spectators in a circus run by egoistical people driving their own agendas with little concern for the future of the lesser mortals. We are in a modern jungle, where powerplay is the only game in town.
A PRESIDENT AND A CEO
The US voted for Donald Trump as President. They not only got him, but also a CEO, who doesn’t DOGE any questions. In fact, he sits beside the President in interviews and tackles them head-on, even as the President just pouts and smiles. This is a new form of governance. It is the new United States of America. An America that doesn’t see crypto as a threat or a risk. An America where the President-to-be and his first lady float meme coins. This is a brave new world.
PUTIN THINGS OUT OF PLACE
Shock and shame seem to be Trump’s trump cards. He has used this against Zelenskyy, siding with old friend Putin, who continues to pound Ukraine amid all the end-of-war talk. While Zelenskyy may have taken the US and the world for a ride, he is now clearly caught between Trump and Putin, with little wriggle room. He may have to part with rare earth for guns, and maybe some land for a Trump Golf Club.
Earlier, compatriot Trudeau was shamed. He has been demoted to Governor of Canada. Poor soul thought he was the head of a nation. Now Trump wants to annex the state.
But most interesting is Gaza. Trump didn’t bat an eyelid at the deaths and genocide, even as Israel carried on pounding its neighbourhood. Many nations voiced protests, even the UN, but none was heeded. Now we have a plan for an American Riviera in Gaza and all is forgiven.
RETURN OF THE BARTER SYSTEM
Tit for tat. An eye for an eye. That’s the new trade mantra. Reciprocal tariffs. You give me rare earth, I give you guns. You give me Gaza, I give you forgiveness. You take my oil and guns, I take your goods. You let Tesla sell cars, I give you a hug. For US President Donald Trump, trade is clearly about give-and-take. Nothing given, nothing taken.
XI SEEKS DEEPER TIES
It is not just the west that’s seeing change, even the east. Chinese premier Xi recently met local tech entrepreneurs, in an initiative unheard of in the nation’s governance history. Clearly he was seeking deeper engagement after the DeepSeek success shook the developed world. And all from Microsoft to Amazon to Nvidia embraced DeepSeek after the initial shocking revelation. China is also pushing ahead on all fronts with Xi telling his team to ignore the tariff noise and move on.
If the world didn’t take China to task on Covid, what can it do on trade?
ELECTRIC DREAMS TO ICE AGE
With Trump going “drill baby, drill”, the world is moving slowly back from the all-electric mobility dream to the internal combustion engine (ICE) powered mean machines. Not just brands like GM, Ford and Mercedes, even a big chunk of EV owners polled in the US and India have indicated a preference to shift back to ICE vehicles. So, the big EV shift may not come to pass.
GOODBYE ESG, DIVERSITY
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have withdrawn from the Net Zero Banking Alliance. Billionaire Elon Musk has called ESG a scam. And now several large businesses are ditching diversity as an agenda, especially when it comes to senior level positions. The clock is clearly turning back all the way. Maybe that’s what God wants—Musk sees ESG as the devil.
THE POOR RICH AND POOR POOR
What’s come centre stage is the aversion of the rich gen next to dabble in the family business. Most prefer the comfort of family offices where they can invest ancestral wealth than toil in creating it through enterprise. The hassles of doing business and the risk-return equation put off most scions. They rather back budding entrepreneurs and take the risk of some failing and some succeeding. Many others are happy floating small ventures driven more by passion, than ambition. Quite unlike the less fortunate, who are hungry to grow.
Today, the rich don’t want to work, while the poor have no work. The wealthy are buying houses they don’t need, while the needy can’t afford the houses they do. We are in a world with more news of job losses, than job creation. And the fight for jobs is translating into tariff wars.
GROWTH IN A TUNNEL
The assumption that growth is a given is now challenged. Europe has suffered, China is just about recovering, the economy in the US is sending worrying signals and India’s pace has slowed. And even as the Indian Government chides the private sector for not putting money to work, the captains of industry are wary of putting the cart (capex) before the horse (demand). In fact, many are venturing into traditional sectors like paints and cables in search of growth, as they don’t foresee the need for too much capital in their core sectors. That’s a worrying sign and can lead to conglomerisation of the economy.
Add to this the uncertainty on trade and you have a recipe for economic upheaval.
END OF BUY-THE-DIP
Newbies in equities whose perception was that stocks only go up and all you need to do is buy the dip have received a rude shock with mid and small caps, their favourite hangouts, taking a battering. That stocks also go down is now coming as a revelation and all from the Prime Minister to the Finance Minister to other government functionaries, regulators and politicians are now being made the butt of jokes and memes.
Calls for steps to revive the animal spirits in the markets and bring foreign investors back are now gathering momentum. What will come of these, if anything, only time will tell.
What’s ominous is Warren Buffett building a cash pile like there’s no tomorrow.
GOING BRAINLESS
The nature of discourse among leaders across the world makes one wonder: who picked these guys? There is clearly a lot of brainless talk. Most leaders are uninformed or feign to be. It is almost as if we are saying who needs brains. For that we have Artificial Intelligence. Not surprisingly, Big Tech pursuing AI ambitions today account for about 30% of the S&P-500 index in value. And Nvidia in November last year had zoomed to top the GDP of 5 of the G7 nations. Money power is clearly backing brain power. Maybe the world of tomorrow will be run by the CEOs of these brain giants not politicians. Elon Musk has already made his move.
Enjoy the ride!
